Brasileirão
Grêmio vs Bahia: prediction and analysis
Recent form, standings, line-ups and the MBet AI read on Grêmio v Bahia in the Brasileirão.
Data updated:
MBet statistical model
Grêmio vs Bahia prediction and probabilities
Our prediction: A balanced match: Bahia have a slight edge (38% against 34%) and the draw sits at 27%. It expects 1.3 goals from Grêmio and 1.4 from Bahia: over/under 2.5 goals is evenly split. Both teams to score: yes at 54%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Model favourite: Bahia (38%)
Large sample · 18/17 matches- 1 · Grêmio
- 34%
- X · Draw
- 27%
- 2 · Bahia
- 38%
Expected goals
Grêmio 1.29 · Bahia 1.38
Most likely scores
1-1 (13%) · 0-1 (9%) · 1-2 (9%)
Most likely scenarios
Sorted from most to least likely.
| Scenario | Probability |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
| Bahia to score | 69% |
| Grêmio to score | 67% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67% |
| Bahia or draw (X2) | 66% |
Other possible scenarios
Less likely, but with a real chance.
| Scenario | Probability |
|---|---|
| BTTS and over 2.5 | 42% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% |
| Correct score 1-1 | 13% |
Based on goals from each team's last 18 matches, adjusted for home and away. It does not account for absences, line-ups or opponent strength. It is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+.
Daily analysis · Telegram
Follow Grêmio vs Bahia on Telegram
Every day we share our analysis of the biggest matches on Telegram for free, before kick-off.
18+ · Gamble responsibly
Confirmed data
Key facts
- Grêmio come in with mixed results: 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 6 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 8.
- Bahia come in with mixed results: 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 6 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 10.
- At home, Grêmio have won 2 of their last 4 matches (1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average).
- Away from home, Bahia have not won any of their last 3 matches (1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded on average).
- In Grêmio's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 2 of 6, and both teams scored in 3 of 6.
- In Bahia's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 3 of 6, and both teams scored in 3 of 6.
- In the table, Grêmio are 18th and Bahia 6th (37 and 53 points). Bahia sit 12 places higher.
Results, goals and standings come from the data source. The prediction probabilities are an estimate from the MBet AI model. Not available for this match: shots and corners per match, enough head-to-head meetings.
Recent form
Both teams' results before this match.
Grêmio
Last 6 matches
3
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
9-8
Goals
- L4 NovFlamengo3-1Grêmio
- W1 NovGrêmio2-0Atlético-MG
- W30 OctGrêmio2-0Athletico-PR
- W26 OctCoritiba0-1Grêmio
- L18 OctGrêmio2-4Cruzeiro
- D11 OctGrêmio1-1Internacional
Bahia
Last 6 matches
2
Wins
1
Draws
3
Losses
7-10
Goals
- L6 NovCruzeiro3-2Bahia
- W29 OctBahia3-2São Paulo
- D25 OctSantos1-1Bahia
- L18 OctBahia0-3Flamengo
- W12 OctBahia1-0Mirassol
- L9 OctPalmeiras1-0Bahia
Standings
Grêmio
18º
Pos.
37
Pts
34
P
Bahia
6º
Pos.
53
Pts
34
P
Line-ups
Grêmio
Line-up not available yet.
It usually appears about an hour before kick-off.
Bahia
Line-up not available yet.
It usually appears about an hour before kick-off.
MBet España · Telegram
Free daily analysis on Telegram
Join MBet: daily analysis, line-up alerts and the track record of our predictions.
18+ · Gamble responsibly
Keep browsing
More Brasileirão matches
Mirassol vs Atlético-MG
Saturday, 14 November 2026 at 22:30
Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama
Sunday, 15 November 2026 at 00:30
Coritiba vs Santos
Wednesday, 18 November 2026 at 23:30
Remo vs Chapecoense
Thursday, 19 November 2026 at 00:00
Flamengo vs Athletico-PR
Thursday, 19 November 2026 at 00:30
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras
Thursday, 19 November 2026 at 00:30
MBet AI data comes from public sources and may change until kick-off. The analysis is informational and does not guarantee results. 18+.