Carabao Cup

Carabao Cup

Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 20:45Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth

AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: result and analysis

Recent form, standings, line-ups and the MBet AI read on AFC Bournemouth v Aston Villa in the Carabao Cup.

Data updated:

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MBet statistical model

AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction and probabilities

What the model saw before kick-off: AFC Bournemouth (48%)

Large sample · 12/12 matches
1 · AFC Bournemouth
48%
X · Draw
24%
2 · Aston Villa
28%

Expected goals

AFC Bournemouth 1.83 · Aston Villa 1.36

Most likely scores

1-1 (11%) · 2-1 (9%) · 1-2 (7%)

Based on goals from each team's last 12 matches, adjusted for home and away. It does not account for absences, line-ups or opponent strength. It is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+.

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Confirmed data

Key facts

  • AFC Bournemouth went into this match with good momentum: 4 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 6 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 6.
  • Aston Villa went into this match with good momentum: 5 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 6 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 6.
  • At home, AFC Bournemouth have won 3 of their last 4 matches (2.0 goals scored and 0.3 conceded on average).
  • Away from home, Aston Villa have won 2 of their last 2 matches (2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average).
  • In AFC Bournemouth's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 4 of 6, and both teams scored in 1 of 6.
  • In Aston Villa's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 5 of 6, and both teams scored in 4 of 6.

Results, goals and standings come from the data source. The prediction probabilities are an estimate from the MBet AI model. Not available for this match: shots and corners per match, standings, enough head-to-head meetings.

Recent form

Both teams' results before this match.

AFC Bournemouth

AFC Bournemouth

Last 6 matches

LLWWWW

4

Wins

0

Draws

2

Losses

12-6

Goals

  • W25 OctManchester United0-3AFC Bournemouth
  • W22 OctAFC Bournemouth3-0AC Milan
  • W18 OctAFC Bournemouth2-0Sunderland
  • W15 OctAFC Bournemouth3-0SK Sturm Graz
  • L10 OctChelsea5-1AFC Bournemouth
  • L20 SeptAFC Bournemouth0-1Liverpool
Aston Villa

Aston Villa

Last 6 matches

WDWWWW

5

Wins

1

Draws

0

Losses

17-6

Goals

  • W24 OctAston Villa2-1Manchester City
  • W21 OctAston Villa3-1Viking FK
  • W17 OctNewcastle United0-1Aston Villa
  • W14 OctAston Villa6-0Fenerbahce
  • D10 OctAston Villa2-2Brentford
  • W19 SeptTottenham Hotspur2-3Aston Villa

Line-ups

Starting XI as published by the source.

AFC Bournemouth

AFC Bournemouth

4-1-4-1
20
Michele Di Gregorio
24
Juanlu Sanchez
6
Julio Soler
18
Bafodé Diakité
14
António Silva
4
Lewis Cook
11
Ben Gannon-Doak
16
Marcus Tavernier
10
Ryan Christie
21
Amine Adli
30
Álvaro Rodríguez

Substitutes

JK
Junior Kroupi
#22 · SUB
AS
Adam Smith
#15 · SUB
JH
James Hill
#5 · SUB
DB
David Brooks
#7 · SUB
R
Rayan
#37 · SUB
JK
Justin Kluivert
#19 · SUB
AT
Adrien Truffert
#3 · SUB
TA
Tyler Adams
#12 · SUB
DP
Djordje Petrovic
#1 · SUB
Aston Villa

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
40
Marco Bizot
26
Lamare Bogarde
22
Ian Maatsen
4
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
5
Tyrone Mings
27
Leon Goretzka
19
Ibrahim Mbaye
35
João Gomes
10
Emiliano Buendía
53
George Hemmings
39
Brian Madjo

Substitutes

JM
John McGinn
#7 · SUB
A
Alysson
#47 · SUB
MC
Matty Cash
#2 · SUB
ZS
Zion Suzuki
#1 · SUB
BK
Boubacar Kamara
#8 · SUB
RB
Ross Barkley
#6 · SUB
AG
Alejandro Garnacho
#17 · SUB
MC
Modou Cissé
#48 · SUB
TA
Tammy Abraham
#18 · SUB

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MBet AI data comes from public sources and may change until kick-off. The analysis is informational and does not guarantee results. 18+.