Europa League

Europa League

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Thursday, 5 November 2026 at 21:00Estádio da Luz, Lisbon

Benfica vs Lech Poznan: prediction and analysis

Recent form, standings, line-ups and the MBet AI read on Benfica v Lech Poznan in the Europa League.

Data updated:

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MBet statistical model

Benfica vs Lech Poznan prediction and probabilities

Our prediction: The model's favourite is Benfica, with a 68% chance of winning. It expects 2.4 goals from Benfica and 1.0 from Lech Poznan: it points to a high-scoring game (over 2.5 at 62%). Both teams to score: yes at 56%. Most likely score: 2-0.

Model favourite: Benfica (68%)

Small sample · 6/5 matches
1 · Benfica
68%
X · Draw
19%
2 · Lech Poznan
13%

Expected goals

Benfica 2.41 · Lech Poznan 0.99

Most likely scores

2-0 (10%) · 2-1 (10%) · 1-1 (8%)

Most likely scenarios

Sorted from most to least likely.

Most likely scenarios
ScenarioProbability
Benfica or draw (1X)87%
Benfica to score85%
Benfica (draw no bet)84%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Benfica to win68%

Other possible scenarios

Less likely, but with a real chance.

Other possible scenarios
ScenarioProbability
BTTS and over 2.549%
Under 3.5 goals54%
Correct score 2-010%

Based on goals from each team's last 6 matches, adjusted for home and away. It does not account for absences, line-ups or opponent strength. It is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+.

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Confirmed data

Key facts

  • Benfica come in with good momentum: 5 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 6 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 6.
  • Lech Poznan come in with a difficult run: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 13.
  • At home, Benfica have won 3 of their last 3 matches (2.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded on average).
  • Away from home, Lech Poznan have not won any of their last 2 matches (1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded on average).
  • In Benfica's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 4 of 6, and both teams scored in 4 of 6.
  • In Lech Poznan's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5, and both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Results, goals and standings come from the data source. The prediction probabilities are an estimate from the MBet AI model. Not available for this match: shots and corners per match, standings, enough head-to-head meetings.

Recent form

Both teams' results before this match.

Benfica

Benfica

Last 6 matches

LWWWWW

5

Wins

0

Draws

1

Losses

14-6

Goals

  • W2 NovBenfica1-0Alverca
  • W26 OctSanta Clara1-2Benfica
  • W22 OctOmonia Nicosia1-4Benfica
  • W15 OctBenfica4-1Celtic
  • W11 OctBenfica2-0Vitória de Guimaraes
  • L20 SeptFC Porto3-1Benfica
Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan

Last 5 matches

DLDLD

0

Wins

3

Draws

2

Losses

5-13

Goals

  • D22 OctLech Poznan1-1Sunderland
  • L15 OctLech Poznan0-4Bayer Leverkusen
  • D3 OctLech Poznan2-2Energie Cottbus
  • L17 SeptCrystal Palace4-0Lech Poznan
  • D27 AugFC Thun2-2Lech Poznan

Line-ups

Starting XI as published by the source.

Benfica

Benfica

4-2-3-1
1
Anatoliy Trubin
58
Daniel Banjaqui
34
Souffian El Karouani
44
Tomás Araújo
3
Alessandro Circati
10
Georgiy Sudakov
27
Rafa Silva
16
Manu Silva
30
Claudio Echeverri
21
Andreas Schjelderup
22
Jhon Durán

Substitutes

SD
Samuel Dahl
#26 · SUB
AC
Anísio Cabral
#72 · SUB
DL
Dodi Lukébakio
#11 · SUB
EB
Enzo Barrenechea
#5 · SUB
AB
Alexander Bah
#6 · SUB
SS
Samuel Soares
#24 · SUB
VP
Vangelis Pavlidis
#14 · SUB
GP
Gianluca Prestianni
#25 · SUB
JK
Jakub Kaminski
#13 · SUB
FA
Fredrik Aursnes
#8 · SUB
JP
João Palhinha
#36 · SUB
GI
Gabriel Indio
#33 · SUB
Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1
1
Mateusz Lis
2
Joel Pereira
15
Michal Gurgul
72
Mateusz Skrzypczak
59
Terry Yegbe
43
Antoni Kozubal
10
Patrick Walemark
22
Radoslaw Murawski
21
Pablo Rodriguez
11
Daniel Håkans
7
Yannick Agnero

Substitutes

PB
Piotr Bartczak
#55 · SUB
HJ
Hubert Janyszka
#90 · SUB
WO
Wiktor Obremski
#31 · SUB
MP
Mateusz Pruchniewski
#33 · SUB
LP
Luis Palma
#77 · SUB
RG
Robert Gumny
#20 · SUB
EŚ
Eryk Śledziński
#44 · SUB
GB
Gustaf Beggren
#5 · SUB
LB
Leo Bengtsson
#14 · SUB
FJ
Filip Jagiello
#24 · SUB
WS
Wojciech Szymczak
#56 · SUB

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MBet AI data comes from public sources and may change until kick-off. The analysis is informational and does not guarantee results. 18+.