International friendlies

International friendlies

Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 04:00State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

United States vs Mexico: result and analysis

Recent form, standings, line-ups and the MBet AI read on United States v Mexico in the International friendlies.

Data updated:

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MBet statistical model

United States vs Mexico prediction and probabilities

What the model saw before kick-off: United States (48%)

Small sample · 4/4 matches
1 · United States
48%
X · Draw
24%
2 · Mexico
28%

Expected goals

United States 1.83 · Mexico 1.34

Most likely scores

1-1 (11%) · 2-1 (9%) · 1-0 (7%)

Based on goals from each team's last 4 matches, adjusted for home and away. It does not account for absences, line-ups or opponent strength. It is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+.

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Confirmed data

Key facts

  • United States went into this match with good momentum: 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 4 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 7.
  • Mexico went into this match with a difficult run: 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 4 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 5.
  • At home, United States have won 3 of their last 4 matches (2.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average).
  • In United States's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 3 of 4, and both teams scored in 3 of 4.
  • In Mexico's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4, and both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Results, goals and standings come from the data source. The prediction probabilities are an estimate from the MBet AI model. Not available for this match: shots and corners per match, standings, enough head-to-head meetings.

Recent form

Both teams' results before this match.

United States

United States

Last 4 matches

WLWW

3

Wins

0

Draws

1

Losses

11-7

Goals

  • W30 SeptUnited States4-2Chile
  • W26 SeptUnited States4-1Peru
  • L7 JulUnited States1-4Belgium
  • W2 JulUnited States2-0Bosnia-Herzegovina
Mexico

Mexico

Last 4 matches

WLDD

1

Wins

2

Draws

1

Losses

6-5

Goals

  • D30 SeptMexico1-1Peru
  • D27 SeptMexico1-1Colombia
  • L6 JulMexico2-3England
  • W1 JulMexico2-0Ecuador

Line-ups

Starting XI as published by the source.

United States

United States

4-4-2
24
Diego Kochen
16
Alex Freeman
5
Antonee Robinson
3
Chris Richards
6
Auston Trusty
14
Sebastian Berhalter
8
Cavan Sullivan
4
Tyler Adams
7
Giovanni Reyna
17
Malik Tillman
19
Julian Hall

Substitutes

BS
Brian Schwake
#28 · SUB
GC
George Campbell
#18 · SUB
SD
Sergiño Dest
#2 · SUB
MA
Mathis Albert
#27 · SUB
AM
Adri Mehmeti
#26 · SUB
BR
Brooklyn Raines
#15 · SUB
JE
Justin Ellis
#22 · SUB
NP
Neil Pierre
#20 · SUB
FW
Frankie Westfield
#21 · SUB
YM
Yunus Musah
#10 · SUB
MF
Matt Freese
#1 · SUB
CC
Cole Campbell
#23 · SUB
ZG
Zavier Gozo
#11 · SUB
DD
Damion Downs
#9 · SUB
PM
Peyton Miller
#13 · SUB
Mexico

Mexico

4-4-1-1
1
Raúl Rangel
15
Israel Reyes
23
Jesús Gallardo
3
Diego Campillo
5
Johan Vásquez
6
Érik Lira
25
Roberto Alvarado
7
Luis Romo
17
Orbelín Pineda
11
Santiago Gimenez
28
Santiago Sandoval

Substitutes

GB
Germán Berterame
#9 · SUB
MC
Mateo Chávez
#20 · SUB
DG
Denzell García
#19 · SUB
AG
Armando González
#14 · SUB
OV
Obed Vargas
#18 · SUB
IV
Isaías Violante
#26 · SUB
VG
Víctor Guzmán
#4 · SUB
ÁM
Ángel Márquez
#16 · SUB
ÁF
Álvaro Fidalgo
#8 · SUB
EL
Everardo López
#27 · SUB
LC
Luis Chávez
#24 · SUB
HC
Hugo Camberos
#21 · SUB
OG
Oscar García
#12 · SUB
JS
Jorge Sánchez
#2 · SUB

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MBet AI data comes from public sources and may change until kick-off. The analysis is informational and does not guarantee results. 18+.