Saudi Pro League
Al Ahli vs Al Nassr: prediction and analysis
Recent form, standings, line-ups and the MBet AI read on Al Ahli v Al Nassr in the Saudi Pro League.
Data updated:
MBet statistical model
Al Ahli vs Al Nassr prediction and probabilities
Our prediction: A balanced match: Al Ahli have a slight edge (42% against 36%) and the draw sits at 23%. It expects 1.9 goals from Al Ahli and 1.8 from Al Nassr: it points to a high-scoring game (over 2.5 at 66%). Both teams to score: yes at 66%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Model favourite: Al Ahli (42%)
Small sample · 4/4 matches- 1 · Al Ahli
- 42%
- X · Draw
- 23%
- 2 · Al Nassr
- 36%
Expected goals
Al Ahli 1.89 · Al Nassr 1.75
Most likely scores
1-1 (9%) · 2-1 (8%) · 1-2 (8%)
Most likely scenarios
Sorted from most to least likely.
| Scenario | Probability |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Al Ahli to score | 79% |
| Al Nassr to score | 76% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% |
Other possible scenarios
Less likely, but with a real chance.
| Scenario | Probability |
|---|---|
| Al Ahli wins and over 2.5 | 32% |
| Al Ahli over 1.5 goals | 55% |
| Correct score 1-1 | 9% |
Based on goals from each team's last 4 matches, adjusted for home and away. It does not account for absences, line-ups or opponent strength. It is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+.
Daily analysis · Telegram
Follow Al Ahli vs Al Nassr on Telegram
Every day we share our analysis of the biggest matches on Telegram for free, before kick-off.
18+ · Gamble responsibly
Confirmed data
Key facts
- Al Ahli come in with good momentum: 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 6 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 10.
- Al Nassr come in with good momentum: 6 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 6 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 7.
- At home, Al Ahli have won 2 of their last 2 matches (3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average).
- Away from home, Al Nassr have won 2 of their last 2 matches (4.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on average).
- In Al Ahli's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 5 of 6, and both teams scored in 4 of 6.
- In Al Nassr's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 5 of 6, and both teams scored in 4 of 6.
- In the table, Al Ahli are 6th and Al Nassr 3rd (21 and 28 points). Al Nassr sit 3 places higher.
Results, goals and standings come from the data source. The prediction probabilities are an estimate from the MBet AI model. Not available for this match: shots and corners per match, enough head-to-head meetings.
Recent form
Both teams' results before this match.
Al Ahli
Last 6 matches
4
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
14-10
Goals
- D2 NovAl Sadd0-0Al Ahli
- L30 OctAl Shabab6-1Al Ahli
- W26 OctAl Ahli2-1Al-Gharafa
- W23 OctAl Ahli4-1Al Khaleej
- W19 OctAl Fayha2-3Al Ahli
- W9 OctAl Fateh0-4Al Ahli
Al Nassr
Last 6 matches
6
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
21-7
Goals
- W2 NovPakhtakor2-6Al Nassr
- W29 OctAl Nassr5-3Al Kholood
- W23 OctAl Faisaly1-3Al Nassr
- W20 OctAl Nassr1-0Neom SC
- W12 OctAl Nassr3-1Neftchi Fergana
- W9 OctAl Nassr3-0Al Diriyah
Standings
Al Ahli
6º
Pos.
21
Pts
11
P
Al Nassr
3º
Pos.
28
Pts
11
P
Line-ups
Al Ahli
Line-up not available yet.
It usually appears about an hour before kick-off.
Al Nassr
Line-up not available yet.
It usually appears about an hour before kick-off.
Al Ahli vs Al Nassr: FAQ
What time is Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?
Al Ahli vs Al Nassr (Saudi Pro League) kicks off on Saturday 6 March at 20:00 (Spain time), at King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah.
Who is the favourite in Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?
According to the MBet AI statistical model, Al Ahli are favourites, with a 42% chance of winning. Full split: Al Ahli 42%, draw 23%, Al Nassr 36%. Expected goals: 1.9 - 1.8.
What is the most likely Al Ahli vs Al Nassr score?
The most likely exact score is 1-1 (9%), followed by 2-1 (8%) and 1-2 (8%). Exact scores always carry low probability: treat it as a guide, not a certainty.
Will both teams score in Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?
The model gives a 66% chance of both teams scoring and 66% of over 2.5 goals. Goals at both ends are expected.
MBet España · Telegram
Free daily analysis on Telegram
Join MBet: daily analysis, line-up alerts and the track record of our predictions.
18+ · Gamble responsibly
MBet AI data comes from public sources and may change until kick-off. The analysis is informational and does not guarantee results. 18+.