Argentine Primera División

Argentine Primera División

Tuesday, 4 August 2026 at 00:00José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires

Vélez Sarsfield vs Independiente: result and analysis

Recent form, standings, line-ups and the MBet AI read on Vélez Sarsfield v Independiente in the Argentine Primera División.

Data updated:

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MBet statistical model

Vélez Sarsfield vs Independiente prediction and probabilities

What the model saw before kick-off: Vélez Sarsfield (40%)

Small sample · 5/5 matches
1 · Vélez Sarsfield
40%
X · Draw
29%
2 · Independiente
31%

Expected goals

Vélez Sarsfield 1.31 · Independiente 1.10

Most likely scores

1-1 (14%) · 1-0 (11%) · 0-0 (10%)

Based on goals from each team's last 5 matches, adjusted for home and away. It does not account for absences, line-ups or opponent strength. It is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+.

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Confirmed data

Key facts

  • Vélez Sarsfield went into this match with good momentum: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 3.
  • Independiente went into this match with good momentum: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 4.
  • At home, Vélez Sarsfield have won 2 of their last 4 matches (1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded on average).
  • Away from home, Independiente have won 3 of their last 4 matches (1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average).
  • In Vélez Sarsfield's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5, and both teams scored in 2 of 5.
  • In Independiente's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5, and both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Results, goals and standings come from the data source. The prediction probabilities are an estimate from the MBet AI model. Not available for this match: shots and corners per match, standings, enough head-to-head meetings.

Recent form

Both teams' results before this match.

Vélez Sarsfield

Vélez Sarsfield

Last 5 matches

WDLWW

3

Wins

1

Draws

1

Losses

7-3

Goals

  • W31 JulTalleres (Córdoba)1-3Vélez Sarsfield
  • W25 JulVélez Sarsfield1-0Instituto (Córdoba)
  • L11 MayVélez Sarsfield0-1Gimnasia La Plata
  • D5 MayVélez Sarsfield1-1Newell's Old Boys
  • W1 MayVélez Sarsfield2-0Gimnasia y Tiro (Salta)
Independiente

Independiente

Last 5 matches

WLWWW

4

Wins

0

Draws

1

Losses

8-4

Goals

  • W31 JulIndependiente1-0Newell's Old Boys
  • W26 JulEstudiantes de La Plata0-2Independiente
  • W23 MayUnión (Santa Fe)0-2Independiente
  • L10 MayRosario Central3-1Independiente
  • W2 MaySan Lorenzo1-2Independiente

Line-ups

Starting XI as published by the source.

Vélez Sarsfield

Vélez Sarsfield

4-2-3-1
1
Tomás Marchiori
4
Joaquín García
3
Elias Gomez
32
Thiago Silvero
16
Lisandro Magallán
8
Lucas Robertone
11
Matías Pellegrini
29
Rodrigo Aliendro
10
Diego Valdés
22
Manuel Lanzini
15
Dilan Godoy

Substitutes

ÁB
Álvaro Busso
#34 · SUB
CB
Claudio Baeza
#5 · SUB
LC
Leo Cristaldo
#19 · SUB
JP
Juan Policella
#37 · SUB
LF
Luca Feler
#48 · SUB
FV
Franco Villalba
#33 · SUB
AP
Alexis Pereyra
#47 · SUB
SE
Simon Escobar
#18 · SUB
ÁV
Álex Verón
#17 · SUB
EM
Emanuel Mammana
#2 · SUB
TA
Thiago Aguirre
#39 · SUB
LP
Lautaro Piola
#30 · SUB
Independiente

Independiente

4-2-3-1
33
Rodrigo Rey
29
Leonardo Godoy
22
Facundo Zabala
13
Juan Fedorco
26
Kevin Lomónaco
23
Iván Marcone
28
Maximiliano Gutiérrez
16
Mateo Pérez
7
Santiago Montiel
19
Matías Abaldo
9
Gabriel Ávalos

Substitutes

MM
Maximiliano Meza
#8 · SUB
JM
Juan Migue Arrayago
#35 · SUB
FV
Facundo Valdez
#18 · SUB
RM
Ruben Martinez
#32 · SUB
SA
Santiago Arias
#4 · SUB
JD
Jonathan De Irastorza
#3 · SUB
FL
Facundo Lionel Cruz
#20 · SUB
FC
Fernando Closter
#21 · SUB
JB
Joaquín Blázquez
#1 · SUB
LC
Luciano Cabral
#10 · SUB
FT
Felipe Tempone
#34 · SUB
LM
Lautaro Millán
#14 · SUB

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MBet AI data comes from public sources and may change until kick-off. The analysis is informational and does not guarantee results. 18+.