Segunda División

· Regular Season - 7

Burgos

1-0

● Half-time

Eldense

Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 18:30Municipal El Plantio, BurgosReferee: Abraham Domínguez Cervantes

Burgos vs Eldense: prediction and analysis

Recent form, standings, line-ups and the MBet AI read on Burgos v Eldense in the Segunda División.

Data updated: Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 00:18

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MBet statistical model

Burgos vs Eldense prediction and probabilities

Our prediction: The model's favourite is Burgos, with a 46% chance of winning. It expects 1.4 goals from Burgos and 1.0 from Eldense: it points to a tight game (under 2.5 at 56%). Both teams to score: yes at 48%. Most likely score: 1-1.

Small sample · 5/5 matches

1 · Burgos: 46%
X · Draw: 28%
2 · Eldense: 25%

Expected goals

Burgos 1.41 · Eldense 0.98

Most likely scores

1-1 (13%) · 1-0 (12%) · 0-0 (10%)

Most likely scenarios

Sorted from most to least likely.

Most likely scenarios
Scenario	Probability
Burgos or draw (1X)	75%
Under 3.5 goals	72%
Burgos to score	70%
Over 1.5 goals	65%
Burgos (draw no bet)	65%

Other possible scenarios

Less likely, but with a real chance.

Other possible scenarios
Scenario	Probability
BTTS and over 2.5	34%
Eldense or draw (X2)	54%
Correct score 1-1	13%

Based on goals from each team's last 5 matches, adjusted for home and away. It does not account for absences, line-ups or opponent strength. It is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+.

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Confirmed data

Key facts

Burgos come in with mixed results: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 5.
Eldense come in with a difficult run: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 5.
At home, Burgos have won 1 of their last 2 matches (2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on average).
Away from home, Eldense have won 1 of their last 2 matches (0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded on average).
In Burgos's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5, and both teams scored in 3 of 5.
In Eldense's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5, and both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Results, goals and standings come from the data source. The prediction probabilities are an estimate from the MBet AI model. Not available for this match: shots and corners per match, standings, enough head-to-head meetings.

Recent form

Both teams' results before this match.

Burgos

Last 5 matches

LDDWW

Wins

Draws

Losses

7-5

Goals

W20 SeptLas Palmas1-2Burgos
W11 SeptBurgos3-1Ceuta
D6 SeptReal Oviedo0-0Burgos
D31 AugBurgos2-2Real Sociedad II
L23 AugSporting Gijón1-0Burgos

Eldense

Last 5 matches

DLDWL

Wins

Draws

Losses

4-5

Goals

L19 SeptEldense1-2Eibar
W13 SeptSporting Gijón0-1Eldense
D5 SeptEldense0-0Mallorca
L29 AugLeganés1-0Eldense
D22 AugEldense2-2Cádiz

Line-ups

Starting XI as published by the source.

Burgos

4-4-2

Ander Cantero

Alberto Dadie

Ignasi Vilarrasa

Oier Luengo

Gregorio Sierra

Unai Vencedor

David González

José Gragera

Javi Llabrés

Alex Fores

Jon Karrikaburu

Substitutes

Marc Monedero

#30 · SUB

Santiago Lencina

#24 · SUB

Fermín García

#21 · SUB

Curro

#16 · SUB

Victor Mollejo

#11 · SUB

Mario Cantero

#17 · SUB

ÁL

Álex Lizancos

#2 · SUB

Saúl del Cerro

#18 · SUB

Pablo Galdames

#4 · SUB

Brais Martínez

#22 · SUB

David Hernáiz García

#39 · SUB

Iván Martínez

#36 · SUB

Eldense

4-2-3-1

Ramon Vila

Jesus Clemente

Juan Larios

Álex Serra

Floris Smand

Carlos Guirao

Fidel

Justin Smith

Roberto López

Aingeru Olabarrieta

Jorge Rastrojo

Substitutes

Waldo Rubio

#20 · SUB

ÁI

Álex Ibarrondo

#19 · SUB

Iker Ortega

#2 · SUB

Guillermo Macho

#18 · SUB

Javier Martínez

#24 · SUB

Dinis Rodrigues

#29 · SUB

Marcos Bustillo

#8 · SUB

Manuel Nieto

#11 · SUB

Borja Calvo

#6 · SUB

Juan Palomares

#13 · SUB

Julien Yanda

#22 · SUB

Burgos vs Eldense: FAQ

What time is Burgos vs Eldense?

Burgos vs Eldense (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 27 September at 18:30 (Spain time), at Municipal El Plantio, Burgos.

Who is the favourite in Burgos vs Eldense?

According to the MBet AI statistical model, Burgos are favourites, with a 46% chance of winning. Full split: Burgos 46%, draw 28%, Eldense 25%. Expected goals: 1.4 - 1.0.

What is the most likely Burgos vs Eldense score?

The most likely exact score is 1-1 (13%), followed by 1-0 (12%) and 0-0 (10%). Exact scores always carry low probability: treat it as a guide, not a certainty.