Eerste Divisie

· Regular Season - 8

Roda

20:00

Preview

Waalwijk

Saturday, 26 September 2026 at 20:00Parkstad Limburg, Kerkrade

Roda vs Waalwijk: prediction and analysis

Recent form, standings, line-ups and the MBet AI read on Roda v Waalwijk in the Eerste Divisie.

Data updated: Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 17:25

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MBet statistical model

Roda vs Waalwijk prediction and probabilities

Our prediction: A balanced match: Roda have a slight edge (37% against 36%) and the draw sits at 27%. It expects 1.4 goals from Roda and 1.3 from Waalwijk: over/under 2.5 goals is evenly split. Both teams to score: yes at 54%. Most likely score: 1-1.

Small sample · 5/5 matches

1 · Roda: 37%
X · Draw: 27%
2 · Waalwijk: 36%

Expected goals

Roda 1.37 · Waalwijk 1.34

Most likely scores

1-1 (13%) · 1-0 (8%) · 2-1 (8%)

Most likely scenarios

Sorted from most to least likely.

Most likely scenarios
Scenario	Probability
Over 1.5 goals	70%
Roda to score	69%
Waalwijk to score	69%
Under 3.5 goals	66%
Roda or draw (1X)	64%

Other possible scenarios

Less likely, but with a real chance.

Other possible scenarios
Scenario	Probability
BTTS and over 2.5	43%
Both teams to score: yes	54%
Correct score 1-1	13%

Based on goals from each team's last 5 matches, adjusted for home and away. It does not account for absences, line-ups or opponent strength. It is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+.

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Confirmed data

Key facts

Roda come in with mixed results: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 3.
Waalwijk come in with good momentum: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 6.
At home, Roda have won 1 of their last 2 matches (1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average).
Away from home, Waalwijk have won 1 of their last 2 matches (1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded on average).
In Roda's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5, and both teams scored in 2 of 5.
In Waalwijk's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5, and both teams scored in 4 of 5.

Results, goals and standings come from the data source. The prediction probabilities are an estimate from the MBet AI model. Not available for this match: shots and corners per match, standings, enough head-to-head meetings.

Recent form

Both teams' results before this match.

Roda

Last 5 matches

WDDWD

Wins

Draws

Losses

5-3

Goals

D18 SeptJong Ajax0-0Roda
W12 SeptRoda1-0Vitesse
D6 SeptMVV Maastricht1-1Roda
D28 AugRoda2-2NAC Breda
W21 AugFC Dordrecht0-1Roda

Waalwijk

Last 5 matches

DDWWW

Wins

Draws

Losses

15-6

Goals

W18 SeptWaalwijk6-1MVV Maastricht
W11 SeptJong Ajax0-2Waalwijk
W4 SeptWaalwijk4-2NAC Breda
D28 AugWaalwijk2-2Jong PSV
D21 AugHelmond Sport1-1Waalwijk

Line-ups

Starting XI as published by the source.

Roda

3-4-2-1

Justin Treichel

Lucas Beerten

Dario van den Buijs

Marco Tol

Bram Marsman

Koen Jansen

Jérôme Deom

Joshua Nisbet

Anthony van der Hurk

Dyon Dorenbosch

Joey Sleegers

Substitutes

Jay-Jay Van Damme

#28 · SUB

Keanu Van Mieghem

#27 · SUB

Martin Stojcevic

#21 · SUB

Nadir Maoujoudi

#32 · SUB

Mitchell Paulissen

#6 · SUB

Noah Crabu

#19 · SUB

Luuk Verheij

#2 · SUB

Fynn Schenten

#10 · SUB

Xander Van Den Berg

#14 · SUB

Cain Seedorf

#7 · SUB

Waalwijk

4-2-3-1

Mark Spenkelink

Navajo Bakboord

Nazjir Held

Sven Van Der Plas

Jordy de Wijs

Jochem Nap

Ryan Fage

Loek Postma

Thijs van Leeuwen

Yorem Van Der Veen

Finn Stokkers

Substitutes

Bart Kemmeren

#42 · SUB

Rein Van Hedel

#18 · SUB

Azzedine Dkidak

#24 · SUB

Roy Kuijpers

#17 · SUB

Luuk Vogels

#31 · SUB

Tim Van De Loo

#22 · SUB

Jesse Van De Haar

#9 · SUB

Haye Van Gemert

#19 · SUB

Xander Mulder

#13 · SUB

Virgil Misidjan

#93 · SUB

Roda vs Waalwijk: FAQ

What time is Roda vs Waalwijk?

Roda vs Waalwijk (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Saturday 26 September at 20:00 (Spain time), at Parkstad Limburg, Kerkrade.

Who is the favourite in Roda vs Waalwijk?

According to the MBet AI statistical model, Roda are favourites, with a 37% chance of winning. Full split: Roda 37%, draw 27%, Waalwijk 36%. Expected goals: 1.4 - 1.3.

What is the most likely Roda vs Waalwijk score?

The most likely exact score is 1-1 (13%), followed by 1-0 (8%) and 2-1 (8%). Exact scores always carry low probability: treat it as a guide, not a certainty.