Nations League

· League C - 1

Bulgaria

1-1

● 55'

Luxembourg

Saturday, 26 September 2026 at 18:00Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo), GabrovoReferee: Sander van der Eijk

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg: prediction and analysis

Recent form, standings, line-ups and the MBet AI read on Bulgaria v Luxembourg in the Nations League.

Data updated: Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 05:19

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MBet statistical model

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg prediction and probabilities

Our prediction: The model's favourite is Bulgaria, with a 50% chance of winning. It expects 1.7 goals from Bulgaria and 1.1 from Luxembourg: over/under 2.5 goals is evenly split. Both teams to score: yes at 54%. Most likely score: 1-1.

Small sample · 5/5 matches

1 · Bulgaria: 50%
X · Draw: 25%
2 · Luxembourg: 25%

Expected goals

Bulgaria 1.69 · Luxembourg 1.12

Most likely scores

1-1 (12%) · 2-1 (10%) · 1-0 (9%)

Most likely scenarios

Sorted from most to least likely.

Most likely scenarios
Scenario	Probability
Bulgaria or draw (1X)	75%
Bulgaria to score	75%
Over 1.5 goals	72%
Bulgaria (draw no bet)	67%
Under 3.5 goals	65%

Other possible scenarios

Less likely, but with a real chance.

Other possible scenarios
Scenario	Probability
BTTS and over 2.5	44%
Both teams to score: yes	54%
Correct score 1-1	12%

Based on goals from each team's last 5 matches, adjusted for home and away. It does not account for absences, line-ups or opponent strength. It is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+.

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Confirmed data

Key facts

Bulgaria come in with good momentum: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 6.
Luxembourg come in with good momentum: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 2.
At home, Bulgaria have won 1 of their last 2 matches (1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average).
Away from home, Luxembourg have won 2 of their last 3 matches (1.0 goals scored and 0.3 conceded on average).
In Bulgaria's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5, and both teams scored in 3 of 5.
In Luxembourg's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5, and both teams scored in 0 of 5.

Results, goals and standings come from the data source. The prediction probabilities are an estimate from the MBet AI model. Not available for this match: shots and corners per match, standings, enough head-to-head meetings.

Recent form

Both teams' results before this match.

Bulgaria

Last 5 matches

WWWLD

Wins

Draws

Losses

15-6

Goals

D5 JunMoldova2-2Bulgaria
L1 JunBulgaria0-1Montenegro
W30 MarIndonesia0-1Bulgaria
W27 MarSolomon Islands2-10Bulgaria
W18 NovBulgaria2-1Georgia

Luxembourg

Last 5 matches

LWWLW

Wins

Draws

Losses

6-2

Goals

W6 JunAlbania0-1Luxembourg
L3 JunLuxembourg0-1Italy
W31 MarLuxembourg3-0Malta
W26 MarMalta0-2Luxembourg
L17 NovNorthern Ireland1-0Luxembourg

Line-ups

Starting XI as published by the source.

Bulgaria

4-3-3

Daniel Naumov

Ivan Turitsov

Dimitar Velkovski

Kristian Dimitrov

Teodor Ivanov

Ilia Gruev

Emil Tsenov

Asen Chandarov

Lukas Petkov

Georgi Rusev

Zdravko Dimitrov

Substitutes

Dimitar Mitov

#12 · SUB

Petko Panayotov

#7 · SUB

Marin Petkov

#16 · SUB

Andrea Hristov

#3 · SUB

Yoan Stoyanov

#2 · SUB

Aleks Bozhev

#23 · SUB

Kristiyan Balov

#18 · SUB

Stanislav Ivanov

#9 · SUB

Stefan Velkov

#13 · SUB

Martin Minchev

#17 · SUB

Kristiyan Stoyanov

#22 · SUB

Andrian Kraev

#8 · SUB

Luxembourg

4-2-3-1

Anthony Moris

Laurent Jans

Florian Bohnert

Enes Mahmutovic

Dirk Carlson

Leandro Barreiro

Vincent Thill

Tomás Moreira

Danel Sinani

Aiman Dardari

Hamza Kadamani

Substitutes

Sebastien Thill

#21 · SUB

Eldin Dzogovic

#2 · SUB

Miguel Gonçalves

#8 · SUB

Lucas Fox

#23 · SUB

Timothe Rupil

#20 · SUB

Vahid Selimovic

#5 · SUB

Marvin Martins

#22 · SUB

Jayson Videira

#9 · SUB

Tiago Pereira

#12 · SUB

Omar Natami

#15 · SUB

Mathias Olesen

#19 · SUB

Eric Veiga

#14 · SUB

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg: FAQ

What time is Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg (Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September at 18:00 (Spain time), at Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo), Gabrovo.

Who is the favourite in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?

According to the MBet AI statistical model, Bulgaria are favourites, with a 50% chance of winning. Full split: Bulgaria 50%, draw 25%, Luxembourg 25%. Expected goals: 1.7 - 1.1.

What is the most likely Bulgaria vs Luxembourg score?

The most likely exact score is 1-1 (12%), followed by 2-1 (10%) and 1-0 (9%). Exact scores always carry low probability: treat it as a guide, not a certainty.