Nations League

· League C - 1

Armenia

18:00

Preview

Latvia

Friday, 25 September 2026 at 18:00Referee: Martin Matosa

Armenia vs Latvia: prediction and analysis

Recent form, standings, line-ups and the MBet AI read on Armenia v Latvia in the Nations League.

Data updated: Friday, 6 November 2026 at 20:03

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MBet statistical model

Armenia vs Latvia prediction and probabilities

Our prediction: A balanced match: Armenia have a slight edge (37% against 36%) and the draw sits at 27%. It expects 1.4 goals from Armenia and 1.3 from Latvia: over/under 2.5 goals is evenly split. Both teams to score: yes at 54%. Most likely score: 1-1.

Small sample · 5/5 matches

1 · Armenia: 37%
X · Draw: 27%
2 · Latvia: 36%

Expected goals

Armenia 1.35 · Latvia 1.32

Most likely scores

1-1 (13%) · 1-0 (9%) · 0-1 (8%)

Most likely scenarios

Sorted from most to least likely.

Most likely scenarios
Scenario	Probability
Over 1.5 goals	70%
Armenia to score	69%
Latvia to score	68%
Under 3.5 goals	67%
Armenia or draw (1X)	64%

Other possible scenarios

Less likely, but with a real chance.

Other possible scenarios
Scenario	Probability
BTTS and over 2.5	42%
Both teams to score: yes	54%
Correct score 1-1	13%

Based on goals from each team's last 5 matches, adjusted for home and away. It does not account for absences, line-ups or opponent strength. It is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+.

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Confirmed data

Key facts

Armenia come in with a difficult run: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 14.
Latvia come in with mixed results: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 7.
At home, Armenia have not won any of their last 4 matches (0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average).
Away from home, Latvia have won 1 of their last 3 matches (0.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded on average).
In Armenia's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5, and both teams scored in 4 of 5.
In Latvia's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5, and both teams scored in 1 of 5.

Results, goals and standings come from the data source. The prediction probabilities are an estimate from the MBet AI model. Not available for this match: shots and corners per match, standings, enough head-to-head meetings.

Recent form

Both teams' results before this match.

Armenia

Last 5 matches

LLLDD

Wins

Draws

Losses

4-14

Goals

D9 JunArmenia1-1Moldova
D6 JunArmenia1-1Kazakhstan
L29 MarArmenia1-2Belarus
L16 NovPortugal9-1Armenia
L13 NovArmenia0-1Hungary

Latvia

Last 5 matches

LDLWW

Wins

Draws

Losses

3-7

Goals

W31 MarLatvia1-0Gibraltar
W26 MarGibraltar0-1Latvia
L16 NovSerbia2-1Latvia
D13 NovNorth Macedonia0-0Latvia
L14 OctLatvia0-5England

Line-ups

Starting XI as published by the source.

Armenia

5-4-1

Ognjen Cancarevic

Artyom Bandikyan

Nayair Tiknizyan

Georgii Harutyunyan

José Junior Bueno

Erik Piloyan

Narek Hovhannisyan

Artur Serobyan

Uguchukwu Iwu

Eduard Spertsyan

Artur Miranyan

Substitutes

Karlen Hovhannisyan

#8 · LM

Gor Manvelyan

#14 · SUB

Karen Muradyan

#19 · SUB

Gor Matinyan

#16 · SUB

Edgar Sevikyan

#7 · SUB

Arsen Beglaryan

#12 · SUB

Narek Grigoryan

#22 · SUB

Khariton Ayvazyan

#13 · SUB

Argishti Petrosyan

#5 · SUB

Artur Gharibyan

#17 · SUB

Erik Simonyan

#15 · SUB

Zhirayr Shaghoyan

#11 · SUB

Latvia

3-4-3

Rihards Matrevics

Dennis Cirkin

Antonijs Cernomordijs

Deniss Melniks

Raivis Andris Jurkovskis

Andrej Ciganiks

Lukass Vapne

Dmitrijs Zelenkovs

Vladislavs Gutkovskis

Eduards Daskevics

Markuss Strods

Substitutes

Eduards Emsis

#8 · SUB

Glebs Zaleiko

#16 · SUB

Roberts Uldrikis

#20 · SUB

Nils Purins

#1 · SUB

Roberts Savalnieks

#11 · SUB

Albert Aleksanjan

#18 · SUB

Daniels Balodis

#2 · SUB

Maksims Tonisevs

#19 · SUB

Oskars Vientiess

#4 · SUB

Aleksejs Saveljevs

#22 · SUB

Danila Patijcuks

#6 · SUB

Frenks Orols

#12 · SUB

Armenia vs Latvia: FAQ

What time is Armenia vs Latvia?

Armenia vs Latvia (Nations League) kicks off on Friday 25 September at 18:00 (Spain time).

Who is the favourite in Armenia vs Latvia?

According to the MBet AI statistical model, Armenia are favourites, with a 37% chance of winning. Full split: Armenia 37%, draw 27%, Latvia 36%. Expected goals: 1.4 - 1.3.

What is the most likely Armenia vs Latvia score?

The most likely exact score is 1-1 (13%), followed by 1-0 (9%) and 0-1 (8%). Exact scores always carry low probability: treat it as a guide, not a certainty.