Nations League

· League A - 2

Norway

20:45

Preview

Portugal

Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 20:45Ullevaal Stadion, OsloReferee: Francois Letexier

Norway vs Portugal: prediction and analysis

Recent form, standings, line-ups and the MBet AI read on Norway v Portugal in the Nations League.

Data updated: Friday, 6 November 2026 at 20:47

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MBet statistical model

Norway vs Portugal prediction and probabilities

Our prediction: A balanced match: Portugal have a slight edge (39% against 34%) and the draw sits at 27%. It expects 1.3 goals from Norway and 1.4 from Portugal: over/under 2.5 goals is evenly split. Both teams to score: yes at 55%. Most likely score: 1-1.

Small sample · 5/5 matches

1 · Norway: 34%
X · Draw: 27%
2 · Portugal: 39%

Expected goals

Norway 1.32 · Portugal 1.44

Most likely scores

1-1 (13%) · 1-2 (9%) · 0-1 (8%)

Most likely scenarios

Sorted from most to least likely.

Most likely scenarios
Scenario	Probability
Over 1.5 goals	71%
Portugal to score	71%
Norway to score	68%
Portugal or draw (X2)	66%
Under 3.5 goals	65%

Other possible scenarios

Less likely, but with a real chance.

Other possible scenarios
Scenario	Probability
BTTS and over 2.5	44%
Portugal (draw no bet)	54%
Correct score 1-1	13%

Based on goals from each team's last 5 matches, adjusted for home and away. It does not account for absences, line-ups or opponent strength. It is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+.

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Confirmed data

Key facts

Norway come in with good momentum: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 10.
Portugal come in with good momentum: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 2.
At home, Norway have won 1 of their last 3 matches (1.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded on average).
In Norway's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 5 of 5, and both teams scored in 5 of 5.
In Portugal's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5, and both teams scored in 1 of 5.

Results, goals and standings come from the data source. The prediction probabilities are an estimate from the MBet AI model. Not available for this match: shots and corners per match, standings, enough head-to-head meetings.

Recent form

Both teams' results before this match.

Norway

Last 5 matches

LWWLW

Wins

Draws

Losses

9-10

Goals

W24 SeptNorway3-2Denmark
L11 JulNorway1-2England
W5 JulBrazil1-2Norway
W30 JunIvory Coast1-2Norway
L26 JunNorway1-4France

Portugal

Last 5 matches

WDWLW

Wins

Draws

Losses

8-2

Goals

W24 SeptPortugal1-0Wales
L6 JulPortugal0-1Spain
W3 JulPortugal2-1Croatia
D28 JunColombia0-0Portugal
W23 JunPortugal5-0Uzbekistan

Line-ups

Starting XI as published by the source.

Norway

4-3-3

Ørjan Nyland

Fredrik Aursnes

Julian Ryerson

Kristoffer Ajer

Torbjørn Heggem

Sander Berge

Martin Ødegaard

Patrick Berg

Erling Haaland

Andreas Schjelderup

Antonio Nusa

Substitutes

Ole Didrik Blomberg

#15 · SUB

LØ

Leo Østigard

#4 · SUB

Sander Tangvik

#12 · SUB

Thelo Aasgaard

#19 · SUB

Jørgen Strand Larsen

#11 · SUB

Oscar Bobb

#22 · SUB

Marcus Holmgren Pedersen

#16 · SUB

Fredrik Sjøvold

#5 · SUB

Odin Bjørtuft

#2 · SUB

Erik Botheim

#23 · SUB

Kristian Thorstvedt

#18 · SUB

Egil Selvik

#13 · SUB

Portugal

4-1-2-1-2

Diogo Costa

João Cancelo

Nuno Mendes

Rúben Dias

Renato Veiga

João Palhinha

Francisco Conceição

João Neves

Pedro Neto

Gonçalo Ramos

João Félix

Substitutes

Vitinha

#23 · SUB

Nuno Tavares

#5 · SUB

Francisco Trincão

#16 · SUB

Bernardo Silva

#10 · SUB

Rui Silva

#12 · SUB

Diogo Dalot

#2 · SUB

Cristiano Ronaldo

#7 · SUB

Tomás Araújo

#4 · SUB

Gonçalo Inácio

#8 · SUB

Rúben Neves

#21 · SUB

Samuel Soares

#22 · SUB

Rafael Leão

#17 · SUB

Norway vs Portugal: FAQ

What time is Norway vs Portugal?

Norway vs Portugal (Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 27 September at 20:45 (Spain time), at Ullevaal Stadion, Oslo.

Who is the favourite in Norway vs Portugal?

According to the MBet AI statistical model, Portugal are favourites, with a 39% chance of winning. Full split: Norway 34%, draw 27%, Portugal 39%. Expected goals: 1.3 - 1.4.

What is the most likely Norway vs Portugal score?

The most likely exact score is 1-1 (13%), followed by 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (8%). Exact scores always carry low probability: treat it as a guide, not a certainty.