Nations League

· League C - 1

San Marino

0-5

● 59'

Finland

Saturday, 26 September 2026 at 18:00San Marino Stadium, SerravalleReferee: Nathan Verboomen

San Marino vs Finland: prediction and analysis

Recent form, standings, line-ups and the MBet AI read on San Marino v Finland in the Nations League.

Data updated: Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 04:27

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MBet statistical model

San Marino vs Finland prediction and probabilities

Our prediction: The model's favourite is Finland, with a 44% chance of winning. It expects 1.3 goals from San Marino and 1.6 from Finland: over/under 2.5 goals is evenly split. Both teams to score: yes at 56%. Most likely score: 1-1.

Small sample · 5/5 matches

1 · San Marino: 30%
X · Draw: 26%
2 · Finland: 44%

Expected goals

San Marino 1.30 · Finland 1.60

Most likely scores

1-1 (12%) · 1-2 (9%) · 0-1 (8%)

Most likely scenarios

Sorted from most to least likely.

Most likely scenarios
Scenario	Probability
Finland to score	74%
Over 1.5 goals	73%
Finland or draw (X2)	70%
San Marino to score	68%
Under 3.5 goals	63%

Other possible scenarios

Less likely, but with a real chance.

Other possible scenarios
Scenario	Probability
BTTS and over 2.5	46%
Over 2.5 goals	54%
Correct score 1-1	12%

Based on goals from each team's last 5 matches, adjusted for home and away. It does not account for absences, line-ups or opponent strength. It is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+.

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Confirmed data

Key facts

San Marino come in with a difficult run: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 13.
Finland come in with mixed results: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 7.
At home, San Marino have not won any of their last 3 matches (0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average).
Away from home, Finland have won 1 of their last 4 matches (1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average).
In San Marino's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5, and both teams scored in 4 of 5.
In Finland's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5, and both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Results, goals and standings come from the data source. The prediction probabilities are an estimate from the MBet AI model. Not available for this match: shots and corners per match, standings, enough head-to-head meetings.

Recent form

Both teams' results before this match.

San Marino

Last 5 matches

LLDLL

Wins

Draws

Losses

4-13

Goals

L9 JunAzerbaijan2-1San Marino
L5 JunSan Marino1-2Bangladesh
D31 MarSan Marino0-0Andorra
L28 MarSan Marino1-2Faroe Islands
L18 NovRomania7-1San Marino

Finland

Last 5 matches

WWLLL

Wins

Draws

Losses

8-7

Goals

L5 JunHungary2-1Finland
L31 MayGermany4-0Finland
L30 MarCape Verde1-1Finland
W27 MarNew Zealand0-2Finland
W17 NovFinland4-0Andorra

Line-ups

Starting XI as published by the source.

San Marino

4-1-2-1-2

Edoardo Colombo

Filippo Fabbri

Alessandro Tosi

Michele Cevoli

Marco Pasolini

Lorenzo Capicchioni

Cristian Meloni

Samuele Zannoni

Alessandro Golinucci

Nicola Nanni

Nicolas Giacopetti

Substitutes

Enea Della Balda

#18 · SUB

Fausto Salicioni

#14 · SUB

Simone Giocondi

#3 · SUB

Matteo Zavoli

#13 · SUB

Pietro Marinucci

#20 · SUB

Gabriel Capicchioni

#7 · SUB

Mirco De Angelis

#23 · SUB

Dante Rossi

#6 · SUB

Giacomo Benvenuti

#2 · SUB

Lorenzo Lazzari

#21 · SUB

Marcello Mularoni

#22 · SUB

Samuel Pancotti

#19 · SUB

Finland

4-3-3

Viljami Sinisalo

Topi Keskinen

Juho Lähteenmäki

Ville Koski

Samuli Miettinen

Adam Markhiev

Kaan Kairinen

Leo Walta

Joel Pohjanpalo

Adrian Svanbäck

Benjamin Kallman

Substitutes

Lucas Bergstrom

#23 · SUB

Adam Stahl

#3 · SUB

Glen Kamara

#6 · SUB

Robin Lod

#8 · SUB

Santeri Vaananen

#9 · SUB

Lukas Hradecky

#1 · SUB

Ryan Mahuta

#17 · SUB

Oiva Jukkola

#5 · SUB

Onni Valakari

#7 · SUB

Leo Väisänen

#2 · SUB

Tony Miettinen

#4 · SUB

Anssi Suhonen

#16 · SUB

San Marino vs Finland: FAQ

What time is San Marino vs Finland?

San Marino vs Finland (Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September at 18:00 (Spain time), at San Marino Stadium, Serravalle.

Who is the favourite in San Marino vs Finland?

According to the MBet AI statistical model, Finland are favourites, with a 44% chance of winning. Full split: San Marino 30%, draw 26%, Finland 44%. Expected goals: 1.3 - 1.6.

What is the most likely San Marino vs Finland score?

The most likely exact score is 1-1 (12%), followed by 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (8%). Exact scores always carry low probability: treat it as a guide, not a certainty.