Nations League

· League B - 1

Sweden

20:45

Preview

Romania

Friday, 25 September 2026 at 20:45Referee: Ondrej Berka

Sweden vs Romania: prediction and analysis

Recent form, standings, line-ups and the MBet AI read on Sweden v Romania in the Nations League.

Data updated: Monday, 9 November 2026 at 04:17

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MBet statistical model

Sweden vs Romania prediction and probabilities

Our prediction: A balanced match: Romania have a slight edge (39% against 36%) and the draw sits at 25%. It expects 1.6 goals from Sweden and 1.6 from Romania: it points to a high-scoring game (over 2.5 at 58%). Both teams to score: yes at 60%. Most likely score: 1-1.

Small sample · 5/5 matches

1 · Sweden: 36%
X · Draw: 25%
2 · Romania: 39%

Expected goals

Sweden 1.55 · Romania 1.61

Most likely scores

1-1 (11%) · 1-2 (9%) · 2-1 (8%)

Most likely scenarios

Sorted from most to least likely.

Most likely scenarios
Scenario	Probability
Over 1.5 goals	77%
Romania to score	74%
Sweden to score	73%
Romania or draw (X2)	64%
Sweden or draw (1X)	61%

Other possible scenarios

Less likely, but with a real chance.

Other possible scenarios
Scenario	Probability
Romania wins and over 2.5	27%
Romania (draw no bet)	52%
Correct score 1-1	11%

Based on goals from each team's last 5 matches, adjusted for home and away. It does not account for absences, line-ups or opponent strength. It is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+.

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Confirmed data

Key facts

Sweden come in with a difficult run: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 12.
Romania come in with mixed results: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 6.
At home, Sweden have won 1 of their last 2 matches (3.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on average).
Away from home, Romania have not won any of their last 3 matches (0.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average).
In Sweden's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5, and both teams scored in 4 of 5.
In Romania's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5, and both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Results, goals and standings come from the data source. The prediction probabilities are an estimate from the MBet AI model. Not available for this match: shots and corners per match, standings, enough head-to-head meetings.

Recent form

Both teams' results before this match.

Sweden

Last 5 matches

DWLDL

Wins

Draws

Losses

9-12

Goals

L30 JunFrance3-0Sweden
D26 JunJapan1-1Sweden
L20 JunNetherlands5-1Sweden
W15 JunSweden5-1Tunisia
D4 JunSweden2-2Greece

Romania

Last 5 matches

WLLDW

Wins

Draws

Losses

10-6

Goals

W6 JunRomania2-1Wales
D2 JunGeorgia1-1Romania
L31 MarSlovakia2-0Romania
L26 MarTürkiye1-0Romania
W18 NovRomania7-1San Marino

Line-ups

Starting XI as published by the source.

Sweden

4-4-2

Viktor Johansson

Emil Holm

Elliot Stroud

Carl Starfelt

Victor Lindelöf

Lucas Bergvall

Alexander Bernhardsson

Yasin Ayari

Sebastian Nanasi

Alexander Isak

Viktor Gyökeres

Substitutes

Patrick Walemark

#11 · SUB

Hampus Skoglund

#22 · SUB

John Mellberg

#2 · SUB

Williot Swedberg

#13 · SUB

Daniel Svensson

#8 · SUB

Hugo Larsson

#20 · SUB

Noel Törnqvist

#1 · SUB

Benjamin Nygren

#10 · SUB

Melker Ellborg

#23 · SUB

Hjalmar Ekdal

#14 · SUB

Gabriel Gudmundsson

#5 · SUB

Jesper Karlström

#16 · SUB

Romania

3-4-1-2

Andrei Radu

Virgil Ghita

Radu Dragusin

Andrei Coubis

Andrei Ratiu

Nicusor Bancu

Tudor Baluta

Razvan Marin

Ianis Hagi

Dennis Man

Louis Munteanu

Substitutes

Valentin Cojocaru

#16 · SUB

Andrei Borza

#7 · SUB

Otto Hindrich

#12 · SUB

Vlad Dragomir

#22 · SUB

Matei Ilie

#21 · SUB

Florin Tanase

#19 · SUB

Lisav Eissat

#23 · SUB

Valentin Mihaila

#13 · SUB

Andrei Burca

#15 · SUB

Nicolae Stanciu

#10 · SUB

Darius Olaru

#8 · SUB

Vladimir Screciu

#17 · SUB

Sweden vs Romania: FAQ

What time is Sweden vs Romania?

Sweden vs Romania (Nations League) kicks off on Friday 25 September at 20:45 (Spain time).

Who is the favourite in Sweden vs Romania?

According to the MBet AI statistical model, Romania are favourites, with a 39% chance of winning. Full split: Sweden 36%, draw 25%, Romania 39%. Expected goals: 1.6 - 1.6.

What is the most likely Sweden vs Romania score?

The most likely exact score is 1-1 (11%), followed by 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Exact scores always carry low probability: treat it as a guide, not a certainty.