Nations League

· League A - 1

Italy

20:45

Preview

Belgium

Friday, 25 September 2026 at 20:45Referee: Daniel Siebert

Italy vs Belgium: prediction and analysis

Recent form, standings, line-ups and the MBet AI read on Italy v Belgium in the Nations League.

Data updated: Monday, 9 November 2026 at 04:16

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MBet statistical model

Italy vs Belgium prediction and probabilities

Our prediction: A balanced match: Belgium have a slight edge (39% against 35%) and the draw sits at 26%. It expects 1.4 goals from Italy and 1.5 from Belgium: over/under 2.5 goals is evenly split. Both teams to score: yes at 57%. Most likely score: 1-1.

Small sample · 5/5 matches

1 · Italy: 35%
X · Draw: 26%
2 · Belgium: 39%

Expected goals

Italy 1.40 · Belgium 1.48

Most likely scores

1-1 (12%) · 1-2 (9%) · 2-1 (8%)

Most likely scenarios

Sorted from most to least likely.

Most likely scenarios
Scenario	Probability
Over 1.5 goals	73%
Belgium to score	72%
Italy to score	70%
Belgium or draw (X2)	65%
Under 3.5 goals	63%

Other possible scenarios

Less likely, but with a real chance.

Other possible scenarios
Scenario	Probability
BTTS and over 2.5	47%
Over 2.5 goals	54%
Correct score 1-1	12%

Based on goals from each team's last 5 matches, adjusted for home and away. It does not account for absences, line-ups or opponent strength. It is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+.

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Confirmed data

Key facts

Italy come in with good momentum: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 5.
Belgium come in with good momentum: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 6.
At home, Italy have won 1 of their last 2 matches (1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded on average).
Away from home, Belgium have won 2 of their last 3 matches (3.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average).
In Italy's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5, and both teams scored in 2 of 5.
In Belgium's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5, and both teams scored in 4 of 5.

Results, goals and standings come from the data source. The prediction probabilities are an estimate from the MBet AI model. Not available for this match: shots and corners per match, standings, enough head-to-head meetings.

Recent form

Both teams' results before this match.

Italy

Last 5 matches

LWLWW

Wins

Draws

Losses

6-5

Goals

W7 JunGreece0-1Italy
W3 JunLuxembourg0-1Italy
L31 MarBosnia-Herzegovina1-1Italy
W26 MarItaly2-0Northern Ireland
L16 NovItaly1-4Norway

Belgium

Last 5 matches

DWWWL

Wins

Draws

Losses

13-6

Goals

L10 JulSpain2-1Belgium
W7 JulUnited States1-4Belgium
W1 JulBelgium3-2Senegal
W27 JunNew Zealand1-5Belgium
D21 JunBelgium0-0Iran

Line-ups

Starting XI as published by the source.

Italy

4-3-3

Gianluigi Donnarumma

Giovanni Di Lorenzo

Riccardo Calafiori

Gianluca Mancini

Diego Coppola

Alessandro Romano

Nicolò Barella

Sandro Tonali

Pio Esposito

Moise Kean

Nicolò Cambiaghi

Substitutes

Davide Frattesi

#16 · SUB

Rolando Mandragora

#13 · SUB

Honest Ahanor

#3 · SUB

Giorgio Scalvini

#19 · SUB

Gianluca Scamacca

#11 · SUB

Michael Kayode

#2 · SUB

Daniel Maldini

#20 · SUB

Giacomo Raspadori

#10 · SUB

Marco Carnesecchi

#12 · SUB

Guglielmo Vicario

#14 · SUB

Mohamed Alì Zoma

#17 · SUB

Issa Doumbia

#15 · SUB

Belgium

4-2-3-1

Senne Lammens

Timothy Castagne

Maxim De Cuyper

Nathan Ngoy

Brandon Mechele

Youri Tielemans

Diego Moreira

Nicolas Raskin

Kevin De Bruyne

Mika Godts

Charles De Ketelaere

Substitutes

Mandela Keita

#16 · SUB

Zeno Debast

#2 · SUB

Romeo Lavia

#6 · SUB

Joaquin Seys

#18 · SUB

Matias Fernandez-Pardo

#22 · SUB

Maarten Vandevoordt

#12 · SUB

Arthur Theate

#3 · SUB

Loïs Openda

#11 · SUB

Romelu Lukaku

#9 · SUB

Dodi Lukébakio

#14 · SUB

Jari De Busser

#13 · SUB

Hans Vanaken

#20 · SUB

Italy vs Belgium: FAQ

What time is Italy vs Belgium?

Italy vs Belgium (Nations League) kicks off on Friday 25 September at 20:45 (Spain time).

Who is the favourite in Italy vs Belgium?

According to the MBet AI statistical model, Belgium are favourites, with a 39% chance of winning. Full split: Italy 35%, draw 26%, Belgium 39%. Expected goals: 1.4 - 1.5.

What is the most likely Italy vs Belgium score?

The most likely exact score is 1-1 (12%), followed by 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Exact scores always carry low probability: treat it as a guide, not a certainty.