Nations League
· League A - 1
Portugal vs Wales: prediction and analysis
Recent form, standings, line-ups and the MBet AI read on Portugal v Wales in the Nations League.
Data updated:
MBet statistical model
Portugal vs Wales prediction and probabilities
Our prediction: The model's favourite is Portugal, with a 44% chance of winning. It expects 1.5 goals from Portugal and 1.2 from Wales: over/under 2.5 goals is evenly split. Both teams to score: yes at 53%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Model favourite: Portugal (44%)
Small sample · 5/5 matches- 1 · Portugal
- 44%
- X · Draw
- 27%
- 2 · Wales
- 29%
Expected goals
Portugal 1.50 · Wales 1.18
Most likely scores
1-1 (13%) · 1-0 (10%) · 2-1 (9%)
Most likely scenarios
Sorted from most to least likely.
| Scenario | Probability |
|---|---|
| Portugal to score | 72% |
| Portugal or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67% |
| Wales to score | 65% |
Other possible scenarios
Less likely, but with a real chance.
| Scenario | Probability |
|---|---|
| BTTS and over 2.5 | 42% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% |
| Correct score 1-1 | 13% |
Based on goals from each team's last 5 matches, adjusted for home and away. It does not account for absences, line-ups or opponent strength. It is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+.
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Confirmed data
Key facts
- Portugal come in with mixed results: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 3.
- Wales come in with a difficult run: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 6.
- At home, Portugal have won 2 of their last 4 matches (2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded on average).
- In Portugal's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5, and both teams scored in 2 of 5.
- In Wales's recent matches there were over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5, and both teams scored in 5 of 5.
Results, goals and standings come from the data source. The prediction probabilities are an estimate from the MBet AI model. Not available for this match: shots and corners per match, standings, enough head-to-head meetings.
Recent form
Both teams' results before this match.
Portugal
Last 5 matches
2
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
8-3
Goals
- L6 JulPortugal0-1Spain
- W3 JulPortugal2-1Croatia
- D28 JunColombia0-0Portugal
- W23 JunPortugal5-0Uzbekistan
- D17 JunPortugal1-1Congo DR
Wales
Last 5 matches
1
Wins
2
Draws
2
Losses
11-6
Goals
- L6 JunRomania2-1Wales
- D2 JunWales1-1Ghana
- D31 MarWales1-1Northern Ireland
- L26 MarWales1-1Bosnia-Herzegovina
- W18 NovWales7-1North Macedonia
Line-ups
Starting XI as published by the source.
Portugal
Substitutes
Wales
Substitutes
Portugal vs Wales: FAQ
What time is Portugal vs Wales?
Portugal vs Wales (Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 24 September at 20:45 (Spain time).
Who is the favourite in Portugal vs Wales?
According to the MBet AI statistical model, Portugal are favourites, with a 44% chance of winning. Full split: Portugal 44%, draw 27%, Wales 29%. Expected goals: 1.5 - 1.2.
What is the most likely Portugal vs Wales score?
The most likely exact score is 1-1 (13%), followed by 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%). Exact scores always carry low probability: treat it as a guide, not a certainty.
Will both teams score in Portugal vs Wales?
The model gives a 53% chance of both teams scoring and 50% of over 2.5 goals. Goals at both ends are expected.
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MBet AI data comes from public sources and may change until kick-off. The analysis is informational and does not guarantee results. 18+.